Gold prices pushed higher on Monday, hovering near seven-week peaks as investors weigh simmering geopolitical tensions in Iran against shifting expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate policy ahead of critical U.S. inflation data.
Gold Maintains Momentum After Jobs Report
Spot gold rose 0.3% to $4,354.51 per ounce by 03:03 ET (07:03 GMT), while U.S. gold futures mirrored the trend, climbing 0.3% to $4,414.40. The precious metal reached its highest level since June 17 this past Friday, fueled by a surprise contraction in U.S. job growth for July. Significant downward revisions to previous months’ employment data have intensified concerns regarding the actual health of the labor market.
Fed Policy Outlook Shifts
The dismal employment report has forced investors to scale back expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the upcoming September 15-16 meeting. Futures markets now suggest a less-than-even probability of a rate increase—a sharp reversal from the over 50% likelihood observed prior to the release of the labor statistics.
Lower interest rates typically provide a tailwind for bullion. Since gold does not generate yield, a less restrictive monetary environment reduces the opportunity cost of holding the metal, making it a more attractive asset for investors.
Inflation Data and Geopolitical Risks
Market focus is now shifting toward Wednesday’s U.S. consumer inflation figures and Thursday’s producer price data. Analysts suggest that softer inflation readings could grant the Federal Reserve greater flexibility to pursue a more accommodative monetary policy.
Simultaneously, gold continues to benefit from its status as a safe-haven asset amid rising geopolitical friction. Iran has signaled progress toward a final agreement with Oman regarding new shipping lanes in the Strait of Hormuz, though Tehran insists that Washington must meet further conditions before the critical waterway fully reopens.
Despite this safe-haven demand, the outlook remains complex. Renewed strength in crude oil prices threatens to introduce new inflationary pressures, potentially limiting the Federal Reserve’s capacity to ease policy.
Broader Metals Market Performance
The positive sentiment extended to other precious metals, with silver rising 1.3% to $64.36 an ounce and platinum gaining 0.5% to $1,757.64. Industrial metals also saw gains, as benchmark copper futures on the London Metal Exchange rose 0.6% to $14,126.33 per tonne, and U.S. copper futures advanced 0.7% to $6.635 per pound.
“Copper has rallied sharply on expectations of US import tariffs, as traders rush metal into the US and physical markets tighten. With prices back near record highs, any policy disappointment could put that tariff premium to the test,” ING analysts noted.
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